The suspension by the new administration of the United States of a number of integration projects with its participation is interpreted today as a sign of the curtailing the processes of globalization in favor of regionalization. Indeed, the development of trade and investments in most regional trade and economic alliances outpace the growth of global trade, especially in ASEAN. The institutions of economic and political interaction within the BRICS are being strengthened. However, it seems globalization also continues to evolve, demonstrating the transition to new layers of space. This has made it possible to make a rapid digital transformation. It contributes to a rapid increase in the level of global and situational awareness, which is critical for modeling the future. Trump understands this perfectly, exactly about this the main slogan of his election campaign: “Let’s Make America Great Again”. Most of his first decrees are about it.
Perhaps it is Trump, with all the specifics of his character and destiny, signifies the quintessence of the shifts taking place in the world. It comes down to a strategic choice between stalling, but still operating model of the world order, based on hegemonic — in politics, speculative — in economy, and neoliberal — in ideology, basics, and the emerging contours of the new model. Such changes in the global model are always accompanied by a bitter political struggle, usually leading to wars and revolutions.
Is there a chance today to avoid such a scenario?
The fact that its probability is high enough, first, historical experience says, especially the period marked by two world wars. Second, the beneficiaries of the current order have in their hands the main factors of power, the weak, which is obviously the majority do not even have close potential for confronting the dominant structures. Few exceptions, demonstrating an obvious and hidden rebellion, referred to “outcasts”, only confirm the diagnosis. Third, as before, the new phenomenal technological innovations have an undoubted military-applied aspect. Digitalization completely naturally turns into an increase in cyber-vulnerability.
Most significantly, the already formed global digital platform, mainly on American and to a lesser extent on European resources, allows in principle, by processing huge volumes of information about the past and present, to model the desired future and behavior of the broad masses of the world humanity in accordance with the goals of the designer. You can do this in principle, ignoring the interests, values, goals, traditions of the “object of management” itself. In other words, using the potential of the digital platform, it is possible to carry out strategic, essentially military, operations of a new type that international law can not qualify as a war. Moreover, it can even be represented in a fake way as an optimization of the world order, as a triumph of inevitable globalization.
Are there any arguments in favor of a scenario favorable for the evolution of human-warren — the productive partnership of historically formed civilizations? Undoubtedly. At least three arguments must be taken into account.
First, the triumphant procession of the digital revolution is not at all a finale of progress, which will lead to a technological singularity. We are waiting for an unprecedented scientific breakthrough in the foreseeable historical period, which will offer even new physical principles for the arrangement of life on Earth. Its consequences can be compared with the discovery of a nuclear chain reaction and the creation of an atomic bomb or with the discovery of the human genome. Already there is every reason to expect prosperity of nature-like technologies that will make radical changes in energy, health, industry, services, agriculture, and education.
Second, we can expect an aggravation or emergence of serious natural problems, an asteroid threat in particular, which will require not an armed clarification of relations of the powers in the race for domination, but all-round cooperation in the face of a common threat.
Third, the staggering progress of the productive forces, especially their intellectual part, will certainly enable to solve many current troubles and problems. The population of countries developed technologically and economically in the current century will be able to expect an average life expectancy of 100 years. And many dreams, which were formulated by the outstanding thinkers of mankind, can be realized.This is, among other things, a dream of reaching the far space.
Its implementation is possible only if the principle of unity in diversity prevails, the priority of creativity and initiative over consumerism and manipulation, the primacy of humanity, which will not allow sacrificing itself either to robots or cyborgs, viruses, or former non-human-loving entities.